The Math of Covid19

Here is the truth that you are not hearing in the media. It’s about mathematics. The world of math is elegant. Here is the math of covid19 in simple terms. 

When you find and report a case, you are looking at a picture of time that was taken 15 days ago. The count today is two weeks late. If we had perfect testing of everybody that went to the doctor then the count today would be only one seventh of the true case count from two weeks ago. Today’s numbers are MUCH higher. Read on to find out why.

This is not about fear. This is about understanding the threat and acting appropriately.

I am a new coronavirus. I take 2-14 days to make my victim feel sick. On average it is five days before my victims will have any symptoms at all. During this time they do not even know that they are spreading me. 80% (source) of the people that I infect will get me from people who did not know they had me when they transmit me to the new victim. I am sneaky. But that’s not all. For the first 5-10 days I will make you feel like you have a cold...you will think it’s just the flu or “allergies”. It’s not--as your mother will soon find out. You are going to cough, just once, nothing to worry about. I will go airborne and remain in the air for up to three hours before she breathes me in and I take root in her lungs. She will be fine for a good ten days, then she’ll get a fever or a lump in her throat. She has allergies too so she’ll think that’s all it is too. If things work perfectly, a full 24 days after I infect you, you will start to think you are sicker than you thought and you need to go to the doctor. They will probably tell you you just have the flu and you will go on spreading. Six out of 7 people that I infect have mild to no symptoms, but I will live in them for up to six weeks after their symptoms end looking for a chance to spread to someone else. Six of seven people will never be tested, nor will they be counted in the statistics touted by the media and politicians. My plans are much bigger than theirs and I have mastered the math...because math is a pure science.

I will not kill my host too fast nor too many of them. That would make me burn out and not spread well enough. I need most people to not be deathly ill, at least not at first. I need to have people think they are not that sick and continue seeing other people. Best case, act like your negative until you have a test that tells you you’re not.

So what is the math of covid19? Every day you will discover about 1.364 new cases for every case you know about today. For every case you discovered there are roughly 6 more out there that you don’t know about. One case known represents seven people walking around spreading covid19. So we multiply that one known case by 7. If we report 1000 cases, there are 7000 people AT THE SAME STAGE OF INFECTION as the one known case. Each of those 7000 has been spreading the virus for up to 24 days and infecting others. On average I will make it around 15 days* undetected and one known case will become 739 in just a few weeks time--by the time you know about the one, 739 people are already sick and just don’t know it. For you math geeks out there, at a rate of 1.364 growth per day, that is 7 x 1.36 raised to the 15th power. If things work perfectly, the once case you know about, by the time you know about it, has spread to as many as 1727 other people over 24 days! If it goes the other way and you go from infection to really sick in six days you are spreading me mightily as you cough you represent 45 cases. If you are weak, I will try to kill you. I am a virus for which you have no defense.

Remember, the count you are seeing what the virus did an average of 15 days ago. The number infected today is MUCH higher than what we know about today--we will have to wait two weeks to discover just 14-20% of the people the virus infected today the other 80-86% will go undetected. Take the number you hear about and multiply it by 739...then do the math yourself and STAY HOME. Assume your neighbor has it. Assume that you have it and could give it to anyone you contact. Create a “pod” of care and stay in it. Treat this seriously.

So what can you do? Stay away from other people. Covid19 may have already found you.

I started writing this to explain something. Tests do not matter anymore. Why? At this point in time, EVERYBODY must be presumed to have covid19. This is not a blame thing so stop thinking innocent until proven guilty. It’s here and placing blame is a fools game. It’s also a different time than we have seen in 102 years.

This is how you should act: I have the virus--stay away from me. You have the virus--stay away from me. Stay home in your pod. Nobody goes out. Nobody comes in. That is the ONLY way to stop it. You must take extreme measures to isolate yourself and your family. Close the door and keep it closed. There are measures you can take--in a different day they would make you seem like a freak--but that was yesterday.

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6 Weeks quarantine if you have been sick. PERIOD. NOT 14 days. Corona virus can live inside of patients for 5 weeks after contagion--we have known this since March 11 (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext#back-bib33)

*drawn from statistics in china which indicate that patients reported that their symptoms appeared about ten days before diagnosis and the reported average incubation period of 5 days.

Digestive symptoms worse clinical outcome. 60% discharged without, with digestive were 34%