Originally Published on Facebook on March 14, 2020

As many of you know, I am a scientist at heart. Professionally I work in data so it should come as little surprise that I built a model for what I thought covid19 spread would look like in the US in ten days.

I did this last Tuesday night. It was shocking. I'm sad to report that it was also pretty accurate with Thursday being a little behind (encouraging) but Friday making up for that and putting the projection right back on track. My model scared me. It should scare you too.

My intent for the weekend was to build a formal model (actually several models) to get a feeling for alternate scenarios this weekend. Last night my wife sent me an article by another data scientist and business leader, Tomas Pueyo, (linked below) who has done a lot of the heavy data lifting so instead of spending my time duplicating his efforts I'm going to link you to his lengthy article (please take the time to read it--it will not be a waste of your time). It is an excellent analysis and agrees with my own, though it still lacks some of the scenarios I am considering. It avoids drawing panicky conclusions, but strongly makes the case for immediate isolation of seemingly healthy people in the US.

If you think people are overreacting, my analysis a few weeks ago considered this as needed and my conclusion was that this thing is already out there.

Two things that are strikingly well illustrated in article graphs:

1. The lag between onset of symptoms and reporting shows that there is roughly a ten day lag between onset and official verification of the case (that lag is everywhere)
2. The swine flu of 1918 response is displayed in a city by city scatter plot.

The scatter plot is worth talking a bit more beyond the analysis in the article (again it is well worth your time. Read it. Understand it.). The data is strikingly linear--what this means is that we can get a very good sense of the measures taken and how they affected the outcomes. We can also see from the cities below the trend line that 'over-reactions' saved lives while delayed reactions cost many. Today we are already in a state of under-reaction in most cities. Those of you who know leaders, share this with them, and pressure them to not be one of the weak links who leads with political caution when courage is required. This is one of those times when, if you make a bold move and it later costs you your political career, it was still the right thing to do and you saved lives. Don't be the political coward who can't pull the trigger because you have not figured tomorrow out...Inertia is perhaps the most underrated principle in leadership--do what needs to be done now and your momentum will allow quicker change in the future; do nothing and doing something will be harder tomorrow. There is some good news from my model however. There are many areas in the US where there are few known cases. Here where I live in a city of 1 million, there are two confirmed cases and at least one that is highly likely but not confirmed. That means that if we, as a collective, take a quick response in this city, we may still have a chance to be a St Louis and not a Philadelphia (see the scatter plot if you want to understand that).

Takeaways and a few additions:

1. Take your temperature every day. The first symptom is a fever.

2. If you are not sick, consider that the incubation period on this is anywhere from 1 to 14 days--you may be sick and not know it. Act accordingly, not selfishly.

3. If you are sick, at all, STAY HOME. In 2020 there is no such thing as "it's just allergies". If you think you just have a cold or the flu, STAY HOME anyway. Do not risk being the person that kills your older coworker by weakening their immune system while they fight off your "allergies". Sure Americans tend to work when they are sick--but this has always been stupidly unproductive on the grander scale of sick office syndrome--today going out/in when you are sick is highly irresponsible and will not be forgotten nor forgiven by your co-workers.

4. If you start coughing, cover your cough--if you don't have a mask available, use fabric to stop the spray of sputum. Don't wait to see if you get worse--go home immediately. If you are a manager, make this process easy for your workers whose jobs actually require physical presence...e.g let them leave and text or email to say why.

5. Social distance now. This means stay home when you possibly can. Stay a good distance from other people--1 yard is the bare minimum, 2 is better. Avoid gatherings--the math is clear. This is your civic duty.

6. Don't touch anything you do not have to touch. Doorknobs and handles, gas pumps (use a paper towel if you don't have gloves), grocery carts, touch screens and buttons on anything public. Common sense will expand this list--if it's likely that someone else touched a thing, don't touch it without some form of protection.

7. This one is big: Assume that no other individual you encounter is taking the precautions you are taking--in other words, assume that contact can make you, and those you love, sick.

8. It is not rude to refuse a handshake--it IS rude to extend you hand. Try a nice Japanese bow of respect instead.

9. Wash your hands like a surgeon. I had these lessons as a child from my surgeon grandfather and have done so all my life. Today, you are not a germ freak if you do this.

10. If you can work remotely, do so--now; if you cannot, take what precautions you can and avoid direct contact with others. Practice social distancing at work too. If you have a meeting, sit far apart.

11. Be gracious and thankful to our health care workers: they take risks that we know nothing about and right now, they are doing a really scary job and they are doing it anyway.

12. If you are complacent and take no precautions, someone you know and love could die.

13. Elderly, or people with pre-existing conditions which complicate (particularly related to lungs) are extremely high risk to contract and should isolate as much as possible (completely). People over 80 or who have underlying conditions have roughly a 1 in 6 mortality rate. Check on your elderly loved ones...do so by phone. Go shopping for them. Fewer trips are better.

14. If you do get sick, remember that things which have been shown to help with the common cold, such as zinc lozenges, should also work with this variant of the corona virus--so don't ignore home remedies and such--if it helps a cold it might help here. Chicken soup anyone?